Ten percent of medium and heavy duty trucks to run on natural gas by 2025

February 14, 2017. By 2025, nearly one in 10 medium- and heavy-duty trucks sold globally will run on natural gas, according to a report released by Frost & Sullivan (F&S).

   That includes both compressed natural gas (CNG) and liquefied natural gas (LNG) powered trucks, according to the report. China, Europe and North America will account for more than 80% of global natural gas vehicle (NGV) trucks sales in 2025, and Asia will benefit from what F&S authors called an oversupply of LNG by that time period.

   There is a push for alternate truck powertrains that F&S attributes to energy price volatility, global LNG trade, tighter emission norms, and an "emergence of noise-pollution-free zones."

   "Compressed ignition engines with high-pressure direct injection technology are gaining traction and are expected to garner wide original equipment manufacturer (OEM) support to reach sizeable scalability by 2025," said F&S's Saideep Sudhakar, mobility industry analyst.

   "The NGV market is witnessing the first wave of consolidation across integrators and tank manufacturers. Japan, Russia, India and Indonesia are emerging as the next big adopters of NGVs."

   Sudhakar said that LNG may "dethrone" CNG by 2025 as having the greatest penetration of the long-haul trucking sector, although CNG currently holds a higher percentage.

   While the F&S report forecasts double-digit growth rates in the NGV truck penetration, it also cautioned that commercial fleet owners may be ready to hit the pause button, given higher acquisition costs for vehicles, today's relatively low oil prices, and the lack of government subsidies anticipated. Eventually, however, the report noted that renewed encouragement would come to fleet owners to buy NGV trucks through technological advances and improved scalability to help OEMs lower the initial vehicle costs.


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