September 29, 2024. With the support of GRDF, GRTgaz and Teréga, the “Gas Outlook 2024” (PG24) report publishes the latest figures for the sector and updates its projections with an entire section dedicated to mobility.
The consumption of NGV and Bio-NGV transported by the gas network increased by 16% during 2023, approaching 3.5 TWh, compared to 2.9 TWh in 2022. A volume that does not include the approximately 1 TWh of liquefied natural gas (LNG) consumed for mobility and not transported by the gas network
“If new electric solutions could ultimately constitute options to decarbonize road freight transport, NGV and Bio-NGV already represent technically and economically mature alternatives to diesel, whether for heavy vehicles or for buses and coaches”, underlines the report, which highlights the interest shown by other sectors, such as maritime or railway, which should support the growth dynamics in the coming years.
However, the projections are intended to be less ambitious than those made by the report “Territories and Gas Perspectives 2022”. While the latter considered NGV and Bio-NGV as “the first alternatives to diesel by 2035”, the strong acceleration of electric solutions, particularly for heavy vehicles and buses, pushed the authors to review the decline in the gas mix at the same time.
While there are currently more than 38,000 gas-powered units in circulation in France, including more than 11,000 heavy vehicles, the scenario of the PG24 report estimates that NGV will represent 10% of the heavy vehicle fleet in 2035 and 15% of that of buses and coaches. Gas consumption from the network for mobility in 2030 should therefore reach 14 TWh, three times more than in 2023. For 2035, the projection is 18 TWh, of which 7 TWh will be dedicated to rail and maritime mobility.
Beyond the basic scenario, a more optimistic variant is also proposed. This is conditional on a change in the CO2 regulation favouring biofuels, including Bio-NGV, during the review scheduled for 2027.
Entitled “accelerated decarbonization of heavy mobility”, it would represent a total increase in gas consumption of 1 TWh in 2030 and 6 TWh in 2035 compared to the reference scenario.
The PG24 also updated its projections for biomethane production. While France recently passed the milestone of 700 methanation plants in service, the Syndicat des Energies Renouvelables (SER) and the gas industry consider that it would be possible to reach 20% of renewable gas injected into the networks in 2030, taking into account new sectors such as pyrogasification.
The scenario thus evokes a renewable/low-carbon gas production trajectory of 60 TWh in 2030 and 120 TWh in 2035. During this second period, 30% of total capacity would be secured by methods “different” from “classical” methanation, which is exclusively used today.
